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The Market Manifesto essays …

I post my per­son­al writ­ings here. I am Ted Hearne, a trad­er and writer cur­rent­ly liv­ing in the Unit­ed States. Every­thing here is per­son­al, not col­lec­tive, thus these writ­ings, opin­ions, rumi­na­tions and thoughts are my own. I write most­ly for my own amuse­ment, but hap­py to share with you if you would like to explore […]

The Direction of the Crowd

We speak here of how the crowd seeks direc­tion. And we speak of seek­ing direc­tion when direc­tion is not appar­ent. When the mar­ket is in con­ges­tion, we know that direc­tion is uncer­tain. That is what con­ges­tion is, a weav­ing back and forth between upper and low­er lim­its, with the ulti­mate exit direc­tion from those lim­its […]

Planning, Anticipation, Consistency

We speak here of plan­ning, and antic­i­pa­tion, and con­sis­ten­cy. We speak also of per­fec­tion­ism and the sin of pride. At this point, you should be ready to antic­i­pate the mar­ket at every step. You have the infor­ma­tion you need to know what should be unfold­ing, and the infor­ma­tion you need to tell you if what […]

Theory of Trend Reversal

In the mar­ket we see such sud­den change on scales small and large, and we see them all the time. Some­times they show up as big gaps, some­times as sud­den rever­sals in trend, a rever­sal with­out the inter­ven­ing action of con­sol­i­da­tions and con­ges­tion. The cause usu­al­ly stems from unex­pect­ed mar­ket infor­ma­tion, such as a crop report that upsets fore­casts in a rad­i­cal way, unfore­seen cen­tral bank inter­ven­tion, a war start­ing or stop­ping, weath­er anom­alies, an assas­si­na­tion, a gov­ern­ment falling or a rev­o­lu­tion suc­ceed­ing.