Monthly Archives: August 2021

Theory of Trend Reversal

In the mar­ket we see such sud­den change on scales small and large, and we see them all the time. Some­times they show up as big gaps, some­times as sud­den rever­sals in trend, a rever­sal with­out the inter­ven­ing action of con­sol­i­da­tions and con­ges­tion. The cause usu­al­ly stems from unex­pect­ed mar­ket infor­ma­tion, such as a crop report that upsets fore­casts in a rad­i­cal way, unfore­seen cen­tral bank inter­ven­tion, a war start­ing or stop­ping, weath­er anom­alies, an assas­si­na­tion, a gov­ern­ment falling or a rev­o­lu­tion suc­ceed­ing.

The Psychology of Trends

Many if not most traders wait until the trend is estab­lished and then paus­es, before they try to jump aboard. Often they are tim­ing their move exact­ly wrong, when the trend in ques­tion has paused for good rea­son, name­ly that it has reached high­er time peri­od sup­port or resis­tance. This fre­quent­ly means they are buy­ing resis­tance or sell­ing support—a clas­sic and expen­sive trad­ing error.

The Theory of Trends

We speak here of trends and that which cre­ates and sup­ports them.

What is a trend?

Well, in the mar­ket a trend up is a series of high­er highs and high­er lows, or if it be a trend to the down­side, a series of low­er lows and low­er highs. It is direc­tion­al move­ment. It is a reflec­tion of ener­gy expressed in prices, when the prices move in a series of steps to new ter­ri­to­ry

Theory of Congestion Action

“Congestion action” is our term for that kind of trad­ing which goes up and down, up and down, between sup­port and resis­tance, and resis­tance and sup­port. This pat­tern occurs again and again, and occurs in a great major­i­ty of all mar­ket activ­i­ty. When you see the mar­ket bounc­ing back and forth – that’s con­ges­tion action.