Planning, Anticipation, Consistency

We speak here of plan­ning, and antic­i­pa­tion, and con­sis­ten­cy. We speak also of per­fec­tion­ism and the sin of pride. At this point, you should be ready to antic­i­pate the mar­ket at every step. You have the infor­ma­tion you need to know what should be unfold­ing, and the infor­ma­tion you need to tell you if what […]


On Truth and Lying

There is a spe­cial form of lying that is uni­ver­sal and ram­pant. It cor­rupts our per­cep­tions and caus­es all kinds of prob­lems. We con­stant­ly engage in this form of lying, and we nor­mal­ly do not rec­og­nize when we are doing it. And yet it is very harm­ful to our efforts to devel­op self-aware­ness, and our desire to be con­scious of our­selves, and of the world around us.


The Psychology of Congestion Exit

In con­ges­tion exit we leave the known, and we embark upon the unknown.
In doing so we must vio­late the bound­aries of nor­mal­i­ty that were so good to us in con­ges­tion action. We step out now afresh, in search of new lim­its, mov­ing first into that are­na where lim­its have not yet been set.


The Psychology of Congestion Action

In con­ges­tion action trad­ing we move from one lim­it to anoth­er, and reap our har­vest at the edges, plac­ing trades near the con­fines of con­ges­tion. The per­fect per­son­al­i­ty for this type of trad­ing is the aware tech­ni­cian. In con­ges­tion action trad­ing, we know our lim­its. The task at hand is to be per­fect in our exe­cu­tion, and to gath­er in every stalk of grain in the field. Har­vest time is here.


On Early Warnings

On ear­ly warn­ings. We speak here of pre­science, prog­nos­ti­ca­tions, and ear­ly warn­ing sys­tems. We speak of intu­ition and mag­i­cal think­ing. And we look at meth­ods of fore­telling change in crit­i­cal times of peace and war, and in nature. We would all like to be pre­scient traders. If we could fore­tell the future we would be […]


Relative values

Rel­a­tive val­ues chart the rela­tion­ships between price val­ues and mar­ket struc­ture, and con­tribute might­i­ly to the unique flex­i­bil­i­ty and pow­er of this method­ol­o­gy. These rela­tion­ships are very help­ful because they release mar­ket struc­ture from the need to be expressed in price. The trad­er or ana­lyst can now manip­u­late expres­sions of struc­ture and visu­al­ize var­i­ous struc­tur­al con­di­tions that can be applied across dif­fer­ent time-frames and dif­fer­ent mar­kets. … more…


Good orderly guidance

Things that are up to me: my will, my opin­ions, my aims, my aver­sions, my own grief, my own joy, my moral pur­pose or will, my atti­tude towards what is going on, and my own good, and my own evil.
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Theory of Congestion Exit

In every field there are things that the sophis­ti­cates see that the unso­phis­ti­cat­ed do not see.
Here we are look­ing at the begin­ning a trend, that is, the under­pin­nings of a trend — some­thing that occurs before there is enough evi­dence of what is hap­pen­ing for the crowd to real­ly notice it. In con­ges­tions and con­ges­tion action trad­ing the crowd is wrong at the edges.


Theory of Trend Reversal

In the mar­ket we see such sud­den change on scales small and large, and we see them all the time. Some­times they show up as big gaps, some­times as sud­den rever­sals in trend, a rever­sal with­out the inter­ven­ing action of con­sol­i­da­tions and con­ges­tion. The cause usu­al­ly stems from unex­pect­ed mar­ket infor­ma­tion, such as a crop report that upsets fore­casts in a rad­i­cal way, unfore­seen cen­tral bank inter­ven­tion, a war start­ing or stop­ping, weath­er anom­alies, an assas­si­na­tion, a gov­ern­ment falling or a rev­o­lu­tion suc­ceed­ing.


The Psychology of Trends

Many if not most traders wait until the trend is estab­lished and then paus­es, before they try to jump aboard. Often they are tim­ing their move exact­ly wrong, when the trend in ques­tion has paused for good rea­son, name­ly that it has reached high­er time peri­od sup­port or resis­tance. This fre­quent­ly means they are buy­ing resis­tance or sell­ing support—a clas­sic and expen­sive trad­ing error.